BTC / Nasdaq Correlation tracks how tightly Bitcoin moves with the Nasdaq Composite using Pearson correlation on daily log returns.
A high positive reading means BTC is trading like a risk-on equity proxy in that window; a weak or inverse reading means more idiosyncratic crypto dynamics.
What it measures
Assets: BTC-USD and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) from Yahoo Finance daily closes.
Method: Pearson correlation and OLS beta of BTC on Nasdaq using overlapping trading-day log returns.
Windows: 30d / 90d / 180d of overlapping observations, plus a rolling correlation series.
How to read it
Strong positive (≥0.70): BTC and Nasdaq are highly synchronized — equity risk appetite dominates.
Elevated / mild: partial linkage; crypto still has its own drivers.
Weak / inverse: BTC is decoupling or hedging equity stress in that window.
Beta shows how much BTC tends to move per unit Nasdaq move; R² is corr².
Using BTC / Nasdaq Correlation on PEPS Crypto
Pick 30D / 90D / 180D and read the regime headline.
Use the rolling chart to see whether linkage is rising or fading.
Compare period returns for BTC vs Nasdaq in the context cards.
Pair with Correlation Matrix and Market Breadth for crypto-internal context.
How it works
- Data refreshes daily (~22:30 local) from Yahoo Finance chart API.
- Returns are log(close_t / close_t−1) on overlapping dates only.
- Regimes: Strong ≥0.70, Elevated ≥0.45, Mild ≥0.20, Weak >−0.20, else Inverse.
- Delta compares correlation to the previous PEPS snapshot for that window.
- Rolling series uses the same window length walked across recent history.
What to consider
- A tech-led Nasdaq rally can lift ρ even if crypto narratives are quiet.
- Crypto-native catalysts can drive BTC while Nasdaq is flat — ρ may fall.
- Always confirm with volume, funding, and flow tools before acting.
- Beta can exceed 1 when BTC amplifies equity moves.
- Use alongside BTC / Gold and BTC / DXY when those tools are live.
Frequently asked questions
- Why Nasdaq Composite instead of Nasdaq-100 / QQQ?
- The Composite (^IXIC) is the classic broad “Nasdaq” reference in macro BTC correlation discussions. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 and often moves similarly but is a different index.
- Why daily log returns?
- They are the standard input for multi-asset correlation and are time-additive. Pearson then measures linear co-movement of those returns.
- What does beta mean here?
- OLS beta of BTC returns on Nasdaq returns: roughly how much BTC moves when Nasdaq moves 1 unit in return space over the window.
Conclusion
BTC / Nasdaq Correlation answers how synchronized Bitcoin is with US equity risk appetite right now.
Use it as a macro linkage gauge — then confirm with crypto-native breadth and flow tools.